Risk factors associated with bovine rabies cases and potential distribution to vulnerable areas in Cajamarca, Peru
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Abstract
Wildlife-origin bovine rabies is endemic in South America, with the common vampire bat (Desmodus rotundus) being its primary transmitter. Climate change has altered its spatial distribution, leading to an increase in positive cases of the disease. This research aimed at evaluating the risk factors associated with the occurrence of bovine rabies cases and predicting the potential distribution of the disease into vulnerable areas of Cajamarca region, Peru. A retrospective analysis was conducted on 172 suspected cases from 2004 to 2019, of which 132 were confirmed as rabies-positive using the direct immunofluorescence technique. Each variable was qualitatively categorized into risk ranges. The data were processed using multivariate statistical analysis and the Chi-square test to determine the factors associated with rabies cases. The potential distribution was based on an ecological niche modelling, utilizing records of positive rabies occurrences and geo-environmental information layers. The risk factors identified were: temperature (p = 0,033), altitude (p = 0,021), distance to Desmodus rotundus roosts (p < 0,001), and relative humidity (p = 0,001). The probability of new cases occurring was simulated for 78,12% of Cajamarca region.
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